EMSE Engineering Management and Systems Engineering
Dr. Johan René van Dorp
Professor

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WORK PRODUCTS:

REPORTS

PRESENTATIONS

What If & RMM
P - BASE CASE:
08-20-2013

Q - GW - 487:
Nov. 2013

R - KM -348:
Nov. 2013

S - DP - 415:
Nov. 2013

T - GW-KM-DP: Nov. 2013

Bench Mark & Sensitivy

P - BM: HIGH-LOW: Dec. 2013

T - BM: HIGH-LOW: Dec. 2013
<< VTRA 2010 Home

Vessel Traffic Risk Assessment (VTRA 2010) Update :

The update of the VTRA to 2010 VTOSS data was funded by the MAKAH Indian Tribal Council. A seperate grant to conduct future scenario and risk mitigation scenario comparisons was funded the Puget Sound Partnership.

Presentations presented following the completion of the VTRA 2010 are available below.

VTRA 2010 PRESENTATIONS after 3/31/2013:

February 23, 2015 update of Salish Sea work shop presentation, January 7-8, 2015:

Bellinham Workshop Jan 7-8, 2015 - VTRA2010 Updated February 23, 2015.pdf

Salish Sea work shop presentation, January 7-8, 2015, Bellingham, WA:

What do Coin Tosses, Decision Making under Uncertainty, The VTRA 2010 and Average Return Time Uncertainty have in common?

VTRA 2010 FINAL PRESENTATIONS:

Feb '14 . Hosted by Puget Sound Harbor Safety Committee at Army Corps Seattle District, Seattle:

The presentation below is an updated version of the one presented on February 7th. It includes additional slides for oil barges, container ships, tankers chemical carriers and articulated tug barges 2D geographic profile analyses in terms of POTENTIAL accident frequency and POTENTIAL oil loss.

VTRA 2010 UPDATE PRESENTATIONS:

Dec '13 . Hosted by Washington State Department of Ecology:

Oct '13 . Hosted by Puget Sound Partnership in Padilla Bay:

The presentation below is an updated version of the one presented on October 4th. It has been expanded to: (1) include an additional count window in the geographic profiles at the entrance of the Strait of Juan de Fuca, (2) include potential collision oil loss geographic profiles in addition to the collision frequencie ones presented and finally (3) include a by vessel type analysis of the What-If Focus Vessel potential collision frequencies and potential collision oil losses:

Oct'13 . Hosted by Puget Sound Harbor Safety Committee at United States Coast Guard, Seattle:

Aug'13 . Hosted by Puget Sound Harbor Safety Committee at Army Corps Seattle District, Seattle:

Disclaimer: The Case T presentations below are our first attempt at oil outflow modelling for the expanded focus vessel class from VTRA 2005 and are based on following assumptions which we know not to be the case:

  1. Kindermorgan Tankers were assumed at worst case size of 190DWT as opposed to the planned 100DWT.
  2. Base Case Tankers at 190DWT were assumed fully laded instead of being laden upto their 125DWT limit.
  3. All tank focus vessels were assumed fully laden in terms of cargo..
  4. All vessels were assumed fully laden in terms of fuel.

US bound crude tankers tend to be laden inbound and unladen outbound. Canadian bound tankers tend to unladed inbound and laden outbound. Moreover, Assumption 4 is not consistent with modelling additional bunkering for what-if focus vessels. In future presentations of What-If cases these assumptions have been revised and cargo and fuel assumptions that vessel carry are listed in the presentations. Moreover, in the future only the most recent version of any case presentations shall be available using the links in the left panel.

  1. VTRA 2010 CASE T - ROUTE DENSITY - (3.0mb)
  2. VTRA 2010 CASE T - BY ACCIDENT TYPE.pdf - (4.2mb)
  3. VTRA 2010 CASE T - COLLISION FREQUENCY.pdf - (2.0mb)
  4. VTRA 2010 CASE T - COLLISION OIL LOSSES.pdf - (2.1mb)
  5. VTRA 2010 CASE T - GROUNDING FREQUENCY.pdf - (2.0mb)
  6. VTRA 2010 CASE T - GROUNDING OIL LOSSES.pdf - (2.0mb)

June '13 . Hosted by Puget Sound Harbor Safety Committee at Army Corps Seattle District, Seattle:

  1. VTRA 2010 - FOCUS TAXONOMY.pdf- (1.2mb)
  2. VTRA 2010 - WHAT IF SCENARIO SIMULATION.pdf- (1.2mb)
  3. VTRA 2010 - RISK MANAGEMENT.pdf - (0.5mb)
  4. VTRA 2010 - CARGO-FV TRAFFIC BY LOCATION.pdf - (1.3mb)
  5. VTRA 2010 - TANK-FV TRAFFIC BY LOCATION.pdf - (1.7mb)
  6. VTRA 2010 - CARGO AND TANK-FV TRAFFIC BY LOCATION.pdf - (1.3mb)
  7. VTRA 2010 - ALL TRAFFIC BY LOCATION.pdf- (1.3mb)

MAY '13 . Hosted by Puget Sound Harbor Safety Committee at Army Corps Seattle District, Seattle:

VTRA 2010 - PGHSC MAY - FOCUS VESSEL.pdf - (5.6mb) This presentation was not presented during the May meeting. It content is informative for the purpose of defining what-if traffic scenarios.

VTRA 2010 - PGHSC MAY - WHAT IF.pdf- (1.6mb) This version is a revised form of the one presented based on discussions during the meeting. The design of what-if scenarios to be analyzed is preliminary and a work-in-progress and still subject to changes.

APRIL '13 . Hosted by Puget Sound Harbor Safety Committee at Army Corps Seattle District, Seattle:

VTRA 2010 - PGHSC APRIL - Future Scenarios.pptx - (4.1mb) This version is a revised form of the one presented based on discussions during the meeting. The design of future scenarios to be analyzed is preliminary and a work-in-progress and still subject to changes. - (4.1mb)

March '13 . Sanctuary Advisory Council presentation in Hoquiam, WA:

VTRA MODELING APPROACH - Sanctuary Advisory Council.pdf - (15mb)

FEBRUARY '13 . Hosted by Puget Sound Harbor Safety Committee at Army Corps Seattle District, Seattle:

VTRA 2010 - PGHSC FEBRUARY - (PDF 12.1mb)

VTRA 2010 - COUNT LINES - (PDF 5.5mb) - This version is a revised form of the one presented. Some additional slides are added that were not presented further detailing the analysis including the analysis of the admiralty inlet crossing line. Conclusion slides are added as the final slide as well as a comparison of VTOSS 2010 and VTOSS 2005 traffic data analysis.

DECEMBER '12 . Hosted by Puget Sound Harbor Safety Committee at Army Corps Seattle District, Seattle:

GETTING ROUTES FROM VTOSS - (PDF 2.9mb)

VTRA - PRELIMINARY GATEWAY HARO-ROSARIO ANALYSIS - (PDF 10.6mb) - This version is a revised form of the one presented. Main difference is the expansion of results to 15 locations as opposed to the original 9 of the former VTRA. Also some additional slides are added that were not presented further detailing the analysis.

OCTOBER '12: Hosted by Puget Sound Harbor Safety Committee at Army Corps Seattle District, Seattle:

Submitted to the Makah Indian Tribal Council on 10/10/12:

VTRA SUMMARY DENSITY ANALYSIS: A Closer look by Vessel Type and Location - (PDF 31.2mb) - This version is a 

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