EMSE 280:

Homework Solution Worksheet 5.xls

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Techniques for Risk Analysis and Risk Management:

Guest Lecture: Copulas

Part 1: Introduction to Copulas, Risk Management, Archimedean Copulas, Generalized Diagonal Band Copulas, Sampling from Copulas

Lecture on Copulas Part 1.pdf,

Part 2: Ordinal Measures of Association (OMA) - Overview, OMA - Archimedean Copulas, OMA GDB Copulas, Copula Parameter Elicitation, Copula Selection - An Entropy Approach, A Value of Information Decision Analysis Example.

Lecture on Copulas Part 2.pdf

Supporting Excel Spreadsheets:
Normal Copula.xls, Clayton Copula.xls, Gumbel Copula.xls, Frank Copula.xls, DB Copula.xls, GDB - Power Copula.xls, GDB - Slope Copula.xls, GDB Ogive Copula.xls, GDB - Beta Copulas.xls.

Guest Lecture: Expert Judgement

Introduction Expert Judgment, Expert Judgement Combination: Paired Comparisons, Mosleh & Apostolakis Bayesian Model, Cooke Classical Model.

Expert Judgment Intro.ppt, Risk Analysis - Expert Judgement.ppt, Bayesian Expert Judgment Combination - VanDorp.xls, Classical Expert Judgment Combination - VanDorp.xls.