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Tasks:

The first task under this project was the development of this website as part of our dissemination plan. To propagate uncertainty through the PWS and WSF maritime risk models, the following remaining tasks must be completed:

Task 1: Representation of uncertainty in the maritime simulation;

Task 2: Representation of uncertainty in expert judgment estimates;

Task 3: Propagation of the uncertainties through the whole model;

Task 4: Conduct a trial uncertainty analysis.

Throughout the development a Bayesian paradigm will be followed and parallel computing techniques will be used to spread the computational workload across a network of workstations. Jason Merrick at VCU has the lead on Task 1 and GWU has the lead on Task 2. We envision that Task 1 and Task 2 will be completed during the first year of the project. In the second year, GWU and VCU will integrate their work conducted under Task 1 and Task 2 by completing Task 3 and Task 4.