Simulation-based risk analysis methods
for activity networks, developed by the George Washington University’s
School of Engineering and Applied Science, was used as the theoretical
foundation to estimate and analyze the production schedule uncertainty
of a ship designed for both commercial and military use. The primary
reason of selecting and using such schedule estimating methods was to
quantify the downstream production consequences that a shipyard may
experience due to a design and/or process change.
The ship concept evaluated in this study,
originating from the US Maritime Administration’s PD-337 design,
was designed to serve commercial companies as a containership but easily
convert to a roll-on/roll-off ship for Navy use during national emergencies
or times of war. Under the Navy’s Mid-Term Strategic Sealift Technology
Development Program, excursions of the PD-337 were conducted to evaluate
how improving the (1) ship design approach for ship production and (2)
how improving producibility can save ship production time and cost.
Two major initiatives that emerged from
Sealift studies were the Generic Build Strategy (GBS) and the Engine
Room Arrangement Model (ERAM) approach. Several reports and experts
associated with the GBS and ERAM initiatives provided substantial data
to help build and populate the activity network. This includes engineering
judgement on the duration of each activity and measures of duration
impacts caused by production-related risks.
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