EMSE Engineering Management and Systems Engineering
Dr. Johan René van Dorp
Professor

Faculty ProfileExpertiseContracts & GrantsJournal & OtherSupervised ResearchTeaching Interests

Interests:

Probabilistic Risk Assessment

Reliability Analysis

Monte Carlo Analysis

Distribution Theory

Financial Engineering

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

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Probabilistic Risk Assessment:

  1. Merrick, J. R. W. and J. R. van Dorp (2006). “Speaking the Truth in Maritime Risk Assessment”. Risk Analysis, Vol. 26 (1), pp. 223 - 237.
  2. P. Szwed, J. Rene van Dorp, J.R.W.Merrick, T.A. Mazzuchi and A. Singh (2006). “A Bayesian Paired Comparison Approach for Relative Accident Probability Assessment with Covariate Information”, European Journal of Operations Research, Vol. 169 (1), pp. 157-177.
  3. Merrick, J. R. W., J. Rene van Dorp and A. Singh (2005). “Analysis of Correlated Expert Judgments from Pairwise Comparisons”. Decision Analysis, Vol. 2 (1), pp. 17-29.
  4. J.R.W.Merrick, J. Rene van Dorp, V. Dinesh (2005). “Assessing Uncertainty in Simulation Based Maritime Risk Assessment", Risk Analysis, Vol. 25 (3), pp. 731-743.
  5. Jason R. W. Merrick, J. Rene van Dorp, Joseph P. Blackford, Gregory L. Shaw, Thomas A. Mazzuchi and Jack Harrald (2003). “A Traffic Density Analysis of Proposed Ferry Service Expansion in San Francisco Bay Utilizing Maritime Simulation (2.5mb)”, Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Vol. 81, No. 2, pp. 119-132.
  6. J.R.W. Merrick, J. R. van Dorp, T. Mazzuchi, J. Harrald, J. Spahn and M. Grabowski (2003). “The Prince William Sound Risk Assessment”. Interfaces, Vol. 32, No. 6, pp.25-40.
  7. P. S. Szwed and J.R. van Dorp (2002), “A Bayesian Model for Rare Event Risk Assessment Using Expert Judgment about Paired Scenario Comparisons”, ASEM National Conference Proceedings, pp. 444-453, 2002.
  8. J.R. van Dorp, J.R.W. Merrick, J.R. Harrald, T.A. Mazzuchi, G.L. Shaw and J.P. Blackford “San Francisco Bay Exposure Assessment, Final Report” submitted to San Francisco Bay Water Transit Authority, 2002. Model, Results, Risk Management Notes.
  9. J.R. van Dorp and J.R.W. Merrick “Modified Prince William Sound Simulation, Final Report” submitted to RCAC (Regional Citizen Advisory Council, Alaska), 2002. Speadsheets with Results (Zip File).
  10. J.R. van Dorp J.R.W. Merrick , J.R. Harrald, T.A. Mazzuchi, and M. Grabowski (2001). “A Risk Management procedure for the Washington State Ferries”, Journal of Risk Analysis,Vol. 21, No. 1.
  11. J.R.W. Merrick , J.R. van Dorp, J.R. Harrald, T.A. Mazzuchi (2001) “Modeling risk in the dynamic environment of maritime transportation", Proceedings of the 2001 Winter Simulation Conference pp. 1090 – 1099.
  12. W. L. Andrews, Jr. and J. R. van Dorp (2001), “An Oblique Approach to Nuclear Criticality Safety Using a Causal Sequence Model to Introduce Risk Interventions”, PVP-Vol. 417, Emerging Technologies: Advances Topics in Computational Mechanics and Risk Assessment, Editors: D.R. Metzger, J. Tang, and Y. Urthaler, pp. 1 - 7.
  13. J.R. Harrald, T.A. Mazzuchi, J.R.W. Merrick, John Spahn, J.R. van Dorp and M. Grabowski (2000). “Prince William Sound Risk Assessment: System Risk Analysis by Simulation and Expert Judgment”. Conference Proceedings 22 “Risk Management in the Marine Transportation System, Transportation Research Board, National Research Council.
  14. M. Grabowski, J.R.W. Merrick , J.R. Harrald, T.A. Mazzuchi, and J.R. van Dorp (2000). “Risk Modeling in Distributed, Large Scale Systems”, IEEE Transactions on Systems, Man, Cybernetics – PART A: Systems and Humans, Vol. 30, No. 6.
  15. J.R. van Dorp J.R.W. Merrick , J.R. Harrald, T.A. Mazzuchi, M. Grabowski, and J.E Spahn (2000). “A Systems Approach to Managing Oil Transportation Risk in Prince William Sound”, Systems Engineering, Vol 3. pp. 128-142.
  16. Harrald, T.A. Mazzuchi, J.R.W. Merrick, John Spahn, J.R. van Dorp and M. Grabowski (2000). “Prince William Sound Risk Assessment: System Risk Analysis by Simulation and Expert Judgment”. Conference Proceedings 22 “Risk Management in the Marine Transportation System, Transportation Research Board, National Research Council.
  17. J.R van Dorp and M.R. Duffey (1999). “Modeling Statistical Dependence in Risk Analysis for Project Networks”, International Journal of Production Economics, Vol. 58., 17-29.
  18. J.R. Harrald, T.A. Mazzuchi, J.R.W. Merrick, J.R. van Dorp and M. Grabowski (1999). “Assessing Risk in the Washington State Ferry System”. Proceedings, TIEMS’ 99 Delft, Netherlands.
  19. J.R. van Dorp, J.R.W. Merrick, J.R. Harrald and T.A. Mazzuchi “The Washington State Ferry Risk Assessment, Final Report” submitted to the Blue Ribbon Pannel on Washington State Ferry Safety, Washington Sate Transportation Commission, 1999. Executive Summary, Appendix 1, Appendix 2, Appendix 3.
  20. M.R. Duffey and J.R. van Dorp (1999). “Risk Analysis for Large Engineering Projects: Modeling Cost Uncertainty for Ship Production Activities”, Journal of Engineering Valuation and Cost Analysis, Vol. 2, 285-301.
  21. J.R. Harrald, T.A. Mazzuchi, J. E. Spahn, J.R. van Dorp J.R.W. Merrick, S. Shrestha, M. Grabowski (1998). “Using System Simulation to Model the Impact of Human Error in a Maritime Risk Assessment”. Safety Science, Vol. 30, pp. 235-247.
  22. J.R. Harrald, T.A. Mazzuchi, J.R.W. Merrick, J.E. Spahn and J.R. van Dorp (1997). “Hidden assumptions and Misleading Data: Accounting for Human Error in Maritime Risk Assessment”. Proceedings 1997 of Maritime Operations: The Human Element Conference.
  23. J.R. Harrald, T.A. Mazzuchi, J.R.W. Merrick, J.E. Spahn and J.R. van Dorp (1997). “System Simulation: A Risk Management Tool for Prince William Sound”, Proceedings 1997 International Oil Spill Conference, 545-550.
  24. J.R. Harrald, T.A. Mazzuchi, J.R.W. Merrick, J.E. Spahn and J.R. van Dorp (1997). “Using Simulation to Model the Impact of Human Error in Maritime Risk Assessment”. Proceedings 1997 Conference of the International Emergency Management Society (TIEMS), 41-54.
  25. J.R. Harrald, T.A. Mazzuchi, J. R.W. Merrick, J.R. van Dorp , S. K. Shrestha, J.E. Spahn and M. Grabowski (1996). “Prince William Sound Risk Assessment Final Report”, Submitted to ADEC, APSC/SERVS, PWS Regional Citizens Advisory Council, US Coast Guard, PWS Shipping Companies.
  26. J.R. Harrald, T.A. Mazuchi, J.R. van Dorp and J.E. Spahn (1996) “U.S. Coast Guard, Port and Waterway Risk Assessment Guide”, The George Washington University & Institute for Crisis and Disaster Management.
  27. M. Grabowski, J.R. Harrald, T.A. Mazzuchi, J.R. van Dorp and J.E Spahn (1995). Evaluating and Monitoring Port and Waterway Risk for the Lower Mississippi River; PHASE II report, Submitted to the board of commissioners of the Port of New Orleans, Washington D.C..
  28. M.R. Duffey, J.R. van Dorp, L.K. Ruderapatna, P.Felix (1994). Project Risk Analysis for Ship Production, (with), Final Report for research funded by ARPA grant of December 1991, "Design of the Virtual Shipyard", project No. DTMA 91-94-H-00034.
  29. M.A. Piers, M.P. Loog, M.K.H. Giesberts, J.R. van Dorp and M.J.H. Couwenberg (1993). “Analysis of external safety around Schiphol International Airport” (in Dutch), Contract Report National Aerospace Laboratory (CR 93485 L), Amsterdam.
  30. J.R. van Dorp. “Confidence limits for Individual Risk and Societal Risk around Schiphol International Airport”, Internal Report National Aerospace Laboratory (IW93022), Amsterdam, 1993
  31. J.R. van Dorp (1991). “Dependence Modeling for Uncertainty Analysis”, Internal report Delft University of Technology (Thesis Registered Technological Designer two year post-graduate program), Delft, The Netherlands.

 
School of Engineering and Applied Science
The George Washington University
800, 22nd Street, Suite 2800
Washington, DC 20052
Email:  dorpjr@gwu.edu
Phone: (202) 994-6638