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Description (Page 2):

Principle Investigator: J. Rene van Dorp (GWU)
Principle Investigator: Jason Merrick (VCU)
Timeline: Start Date: 8-15-2002, End Date: 8-15-2004.
Sponsor: National Science Foundation
Funding: GWU Award SES-0213700 - $139,305
              VCU Award SES-0213627 - $136,479

This NSF project allows the maritime risk assessment method to live up to its promise by developing a coherent theoretical framework to address uncertainty. The truth is that we are uncertain. Therefore, speaking the truth implies that we express our analysis results in terms of probability curves rather than fixed points estimates. [See, e.g., Kaplan, 1997]. The intellectual merit of the research stems from the development of an overarching Bayesian framework for addressing uncertainty when simulation of systems states is combined with available data and expert judgment to assess risk and risk intervention effectiveness. The broader impact of the proposed work is primarily drawn from its applicability to areas other than maritime accident risk such as e.g. maritime security risk (intentional events as opposed to accidents). The framework and methodologies to be developed will be applicable to other transportation modes, such as aviation or road safety. Aside from aviation security and accident risk, the technique will be directly transferable to the ever-increasing problem of runway incursions as a result of increased traffic congestion at our national airports. Click here to download the NSF Proposal.