Uncertainty, Climate Change and Energy Policy
The scientic understanding of climate change and its impacts over time have increased dramatically in recent years but there is still considerable uncertainty surrounding these projections. There is now a growing recognition that today's energy and environmental policy choices are also highly sensitive to uncertainties associated with the actions of other decision-makers and technological learning.
Pivotal to our research is the examination of how key stakeholders deal with climate change risk and uncertainty. We examine ways of integrating formal decision tools and microeconomics to develop climate policies that have a good chance of achieving their desired impact. A development that makes this a challenging problem is that the number of different policy instruments under active discussion has increased from a focus on cap and trade and carbon taxes to instruments such as feed-in taris or quotas for renewable energy, and investments in research and development.
Our research agenda on this track is based on a risk management approach to developing climate change policies. We seek a systems approach to address the climate change problem. For example, in the U.S. there are dierent state-level policies to promote more renewable energy generation, but there is a lack of coordination across state lines, markets, and regulatory/compliance regimes limiting the benets that a concerted, and systemic, effort would have produced. Furthermore, in order to distill the influence of life cycle cost assessment on the deployment and adoption of cleaner energy production, we employ the tools of configuration management and optimization modeling to explore the operation of microgrid or distributed energy resources.
Closely related to the portofolio on climate policy is my research stream on the factors in influencing strategic decisions in the energy industry. We investigate how the persistence of existing resource stocks and irreversible investments can create strategic commitment that prevents a firm from making investments into renewable energy, while, at the same time, institutional policy pushes firms toward new resource investments and renewal of their capability portfolio.
In a new and exciting oportunity, we also seek to develop a comprehensive framework that offers novel ways technology can improve decision-making for healthcare logistics under conditions of uncertainty and risk in developing
countries. Supply chains in developing countries are already strained due to peculiar features of delivery inhibitions including limited cold chain capacities, electric power infrastructure and effective procurement policy. Our objective is to incorporate several dimensions of uncertainties into the estimation of the delivery costs of vaccines and suggest optimal procurement strategies.
For more details, see research.
Department of Engineering Management & Systems Engineering,
The George Washington University.
Research Affiliate, Environmental and Energy Management Program, Solar Institute.
phone: +1 202 994 3574 (office)
+1 202 994 0245 (fax)